IEA Warns of Accelerating Decline in Global Oil and Gas Fields
By NaijaEnquirer Staff
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sounded the alarm that output from mature global oil and gas fields is declining at a faster pace, meaning companies must increase investments just to keep production levels steady.
In a report released Tuesday, the Paris-based agency revealed that without continued investment, the world could lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined oil production every year, posing serious risks to energy markets and global supply security.
Decline Rates the ‘Elephant in the Room’
According to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, nearly 90% of annual upstream investment is already being used to offset natural declines in existing fields rather than meet new demand.
“Decline rates are the elephant in the room for any discussion of investment needs in oil and gas, and our new analysis shows that they have accelerated in recent years,”Birol said.
Data from 15,000 Fields Worldwide
Drawing on data from about 15,000 oil and gas fields globally, the IEA found that once peak output is reached, conventional oil fields decline at an average rate of 5.6% annually, while conventional gas fields fall by 6.8% annually.
The agency added that a halt in upstream investment would slash oil supply by 5.5 million barrels per day annually—up from just under 4 million bpd in 2010. For natural gas, annual declines have risen from 180 bcm in 2010 to 270 bcm today.
Debate with OPEC
The warning comes amid ongoing friction between the IEA and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The IEA’s 2021 landmark report had argued that no new oil, gas, or coal projects were needed if the world was serious about meeting climate targets—sparking criticism from producers.
In a statement Tuesday, OPEC accused the IEA of contributing to investment uncertainty with its forecasts of peak oil demand by 2030.
“In contrast to the IEA’s U-turning on this important issue, OPEC has consistently advocated for timely investments in the oil industry to account for decline rates and meet growing demand,”the group said.
Balancing Transition and Security
The latest IEA analysis underscores the dilemma facing global energy markets: sustaining oil and gas investment to secure supply, while advancing the transition toward clean energy and meeting climate goals.
