The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) is projected to surpass ₦100 trillion in market capitalisation by the end of 2025, buoyed by forex stability, strong corporate fundamentals, and rising primary market activity, according to Kasimu Garba Kurfi, MD/CEO of APT Securities and Funds Limited.

Speaking at the Mid-Year 2025 Capital Market Review and Outlook organised by CAMCAN in Lagos, Kurfi said H2 2025 should see improved market performance, with inflation slowing, a possible CBN MPR cut, and lower treasury bill yields. He added that the PMI is expected to rise while the exchange rate remains relatively stable—conditions that favour equities.

Market Drivers

Kurfi noted continued recapitalisation among financial institutions and sustained primary market activity. A key tailwind, he said, is the elimination of FX-related losses amid exchange rate stability:

• Listed firms posted pre-tax FX losses of ₦359bn (2023) and ₦507.2bn (2024)—a combined ₦867bn.
• In 2025, companies have recorded zero FX losses so far, boosting investor confidence.

He added that the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 25) has sparked a rally in insurance stocks, while the CBN bank recapitalisation drive revived the primary market, attracting over ₦2 trillion in 2024, with similar volumes expected in 2025.

Flows & Participation

• Foreign inflows: $5.6bn in Q1 2025 vs $3.4bn in Q1 2024 (+67.42%).
• Market participation (July 2025): FPIs at 27.08% (~₦1.14tn); domestic investors at 72.92% (~₦3tn).
• Daily turnover: Averaging ₦25–₦30bn (vs ~₦5bn in prior years).

Performance Scorecard (H1 & Early Aug 2025)

• NGX turnover (H1 2025): ₦4.19tn vs ₦2.60tn (H1 2024).
• Total market cap: ₦126.73tn (Aug) vs ₦112.6tn (Dec 2024).
• Equity cap: ₦92.73tn (Aug 7, 2025) vs ₦62.66tn (Dec 2024).
• ASI: 146,569.35 pts (early Aug) vs 102,926.40 pts (Dec 2024) — +41.61%.