Targeted investments in Nigeria’s midstream oil and gas sector are driving a structural shift in Africa’s fuel trade dynamics, according to a new industry report.

The report highlights that Africa is on track for significant growth in refining capacity, projected to add 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030. This marks one of the fastest downstream expansions globally, as revealed in the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook.

Key refinery projects in Nigeria, Angola, and Uganda are spearheading this transformation, strengthening Africa’s energy independence and boosting investor confidence.

At the heart of this expansion is the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, with a massive capacity of 650,000 bpd. Since commencing operations in 2024, it has already begun influencing regional fuel trade patterns. Nigeria is also home to the 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery. Angola is preparing to launch the Lobito Refinery (200,000 bpd) and the Soyo Refinery (100,000 bpd) by 2030.

Uganda’s 60,000-bpd refinery in Hoima forms part of the Lake Albert basin development. Meanwhile, modular refineries in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, and the Republic of Congo – alongside additional facilities in Nigeria – are tackling infrastructure and financing challenges through scalable solutions.

In North Africa, Algeria, Libya, and Egypt are advancing refinery projects aimed at improving margins, enhancing domestic supply security, and reducing dependency on imports.

OPEC projects Africa’s refining investments will exceed $40 billion by 2030, with an additional $60+ billion needed for construction, modernization, and upgrades. This represents a $100 billion investment opportunity for stakeholders across the energy value chain.

The upcoming 2025 African Energy Week (AEW) in Cape Town is expected to play a key role in aligning refinery projects, policy incentives, and investment strategies.

With domestic crude consumption projected to rise from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050, Africa’s crude exports may decline by over one million bpd, underscoring the continent’s pivot towards internal value chains.

This downstream growth signals a strategic turning point for Africa. By leveraging this momentum, the continent can move from being a raw crude exporter to a competitive, integrated energy producer.