Underperforming Local Refineries Drive Surge in Diesel Imports to West Africa
By Naija Enquirer Staff
Despite several modular refineries producing diesel, Nigeria remains heavily dependent on imports to meet national demand. The 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery alone produces more than the combined output of the country’s modular refineries. Reports indicate that underperformance, outages, and delays at regional refineries have limited domestic supply, especially in Nigeria, the region’s largest diesel market. While new refining capacity has come online, diesel unlike petrol remains fully deregulated and import-reliant. According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), average domestic diesel production currently stands at 6.1 million litres per day. Dangote Refinery accounts for 5.783 million litres, Waltersmith 0.051 million litres, Edo Refinery 0.052 million litres, and Aradel Refinery 0.289 million litres daily. Against a reported diesel consumption of 16.4 million litres per day in December, domestic supply covers only 37% of demand, leaving 63% to imports. NMDPRA data for 2025 shows that total diesel supply averaged 15.1 million litres per day in January, with imports contributing 8.6 million litres. Supply rose to 17.1 million litres in February and peaked at 21.1 million litres in March, when imports surged to 16.7 million litres, far exceeding domestic output of just 4.4 million litres. Overall supply fell to 14.1 million litres per day in May, the lowest of the year, as imports decreased and domestic production weakened. Local refining helped stabilize supply between July and August, contributing up to 8 million litres daily, while imports remained the swing factor. Another import-driven surge in October pushed supply to 21.3 million litres, before easing to 17.9 million litres in December. The weak performance of local refineries has driven diesel imports from India into West Africa to record levels, highlighting the region’s continued reliance on foreign refined fuel. NMDPRA revealed that Nigeria still imports 63% of its diesel, with domestic refineries supplying just 6.1 million litres per day against a demand of about 17 million litres. S&P Global Commodity data show that Indian diesel shipments to West African countries have risen sharply since 2022, peaking at nearly 800,000 metric tonnes by early 2026. Between 2022 and early 2023, Indian diesel flows were highly volatile, fluctuating between below 100,000 tonnes and above 400,000 tonnes due to post-pandemic demand instability, foreign exchange shortages, and intermittent purchasing by fuel marketers in Nigeria and Ghana. From mid-2023 through 2024, imports stabilized at structurally higher levels, with regular monthly spikes above 400,000 tonnes showing growing reliance on Indian refiners. Their scale, pricing flexibility, and access to discounted crude allowed them to displace traditional European suppliers. India’s rise as Africa’s leading diesel supplier was also influenced by global trade shifts, as Europe reduced intake of Russian-linked products, leaving Indian gasoil to seek new markets, according to Kpler. The acceleration from late 2025 into early 2026 saw shipments climb to an unprecedented 800,000 tonnes, reflecting rising consumption and stress across West Africa’s energy systems. Chronic electricity shortages, population growth, logistics expansion, and industrial activity have all fueled sustained diesel demand. Global trade disruptions have reinforced Indian diesel dominance. EU sanctions on Russian crude products have sidelined some Indian gasoil from European markets. While Indian refiners like Reliance Industries adjusted crude slates to meet compliance requirements, European buyers remained cautious, diverting volumes to Africa. As a result, diesel cargoes have increasingly accumulated off West Africa’s coast, intensifying competition and compressing margins in the Atlantic Basin.
